The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Dec. 14, 2024, we dive into the post-Thanksgiving holiday rush and if it will overwhelm Kendrick Lamar’s Hot 100 dominance.
Kendrick Lamar, “TV Off” and “Squabble Up” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Kendrick Lamar’s surprise-released GNX album debuts atop this week’s Billboard 200 (dated Dec. 7), while absolutely blanketing the Hot 100, with seven songs bowing in the top 10 and 10 in its top 15. That of course includes the No. 1-debuting “Squabble Up” — which halts Shaboozey’s chances of scoring an unprecedented 20th week at No. 1 with “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” at least for now – as well as “TV Off” right behind it, and the SZA collab “Luther” at No. 3. (Lamar also has the Nos. 4 and 5 songs this week, making him one of just four artists in Hot 100 history to simultaneously claim an entire top five.)
Next week, though, Lamar may have two songs competing to be his top-ranking on the chart. The viral “TV Off” has overtaken “Squabble” on both the real-time Apple Music and Daily Top Songs USA Spotify rankings – as has “Luther,” though “TV” still leads both – but “Squabble” has the advantage of both a buzzy music video and an early lead on radio, with 4.6 million in all-format airplay Nov. 29-Dec. 2 (the first four days of the tracking week), according to Luminate. (The other two are also getting some airplay; “TV Off” is at 3.1 million and “Luther,” 2.6 million.)
All three, of course, will invariably be down in consumption as excitement wears off from the GNX surprise release. It’s only wearing off slowly, though – the album still claims the top three Daily Top Songs USA on Spotify, and incredibly, the entire top 10 on Apple Music’s real time chart – so both songs should still be in the mix.
Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia/Legacy): Mariah Season officially kicks off immediately after Halloween, but it always hits a new gear after Thanksgiving wraps. Sure enough, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” has been jing-jing-jingling up the rankings on streaming, sales and radio this week — per building data, it’s the highest-ranking holiday song in all three Hot 100 metrics, with double-digit percentage gains expected in streaming and airplay. The song also returns to the Hot 100’s top 10 this week, at No. 10.
If it can’t capture the top spot next week – and it will be a strong contender to do so — it may get a particular boost the week after, with the Dec. 6 (Friday) release of four physical versions of the 1994 single, in celebration of its 30th anniversary. If and when it does get to No. 1 on the Hot 100, it would mark the song’s 15th week atop the chart – leaving it just four shy of the all-time mark now shared by Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” and Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” — meaning it might not be more than a holiday season or two away from putting that record in its sights.
Brenda Lee, “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” (Decca/MCA Nashville/UMe) & Wham!, “Last Christmas” (Columbia/Legacy): Don’t forget about the artist who briefly snuck in past the Queen of Christmas last year: Brenda Lee, whose “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” finally became a Hot 100 No. 1 for the first time, over 60 years after its original release. Lee’s back this year, and while the promo push isn’t as hard for “Rockin’” as it was in 2023, the song is absolutely still in contention for the top spot, as it leads “All I Want” on Daily Top Songs USA and is right behind it on the overall Hot 100 (at No. 15 this week).
The third-highest Christmas song on this week’s Hot 100 (No. 18) belongs not to traditional holiday bronze medalist Bobby Helms – whose 1957 perennial “Jingle Bell Rock” has ultimately slotted into the No. 3 spot each year since 2019 – but to Wham!’s “Last Christmas,” possibly something of a sentimental favorite this year due to the 1984 synth-pop classic celebrating its 40th anniversary. And like “All I Want,” it may have an extra boost coming to it in the near future: Four physical versions of the single will be on sale on Dec. 13, the week after the Carey physicals, which could finally get it to that No. 3 spot on the next week’s chart – or even higher.
