Former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns makes his first Octagon appearance of 2025 when he squares off with undefeated Michael Morales in the main event at UFC Fight Night on Saturday (ESPN+, 7 p.m. ET main card, 4 p.m. prelims).
Burns, ESPN’s No. 8-ranked welterweight, enters the fight looking for his first victory since April 2023, when he beat Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision at UFC 287. He has lost each of his last three fights, including a unanimous decision loss to Sean Brady last September.
Morales, unranked by ESPN, has won six straight fights in the UFC. Most recently, he beat Neil Magny by first-round knockout last August.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Burns wins: Burns’ game plans generally revolve around pressure, clinch entries and grappling. Morales has an 8-inch reach advantage, so Gilbert can’t play the range game. He’s got to close distance behind feints and big level changes, and crash the pocket. He could try a double jab into the body lock or a low kick into a takedown. Once he’s done that, his grappling is world-class. Burns has to make Morales respect the takedown attempts and give him the threat of back exposure or top pressure. That threat alone will slow Morales’ striking output. If this becomes a dirty, grind-it-out fight past Round 2, it favors Gilbert. He’s been in that deep water before, but Morales hasn’t.
How Morales wins: It’s about discipline, footwork and sticking to the fundamentals. Burns is explosive, but he’s a bit linear. Morales can pick him off with straight punches and low kicks. Morales has also shown solid balance and hips in his takedown defense. If he stuffs Gilbert’s shots early in the fight, he’ll start to build confidence. Once Morales gets in rhythm, his output can snowball fast. He has advantages in this fight, but Burns will try to drag him into chaotic sequences. Morales can’t get greedy. If he fights with patience and avoids the ground, he’ll have the cleaner work.
X factor: Composure in transition. This fight will swing during those split seconds where range collapses. Can Morales keep his composure when Burns blitzes?
Prediction: Morales to win by late TKO or decision. But this fight will test his maturity. If he passes, he’s for real.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Morales to win by KO/TKO (-130). Morales, a blue chip prospect who ranked No. 3 on ESPN’s MMA 25 under 25 list in 2023, gets his first UFC main event against the always tough Burns. As a heavy favorite, Morales is expected to steamroll Burns, and I don’t disagree. Burns is at his best when he takes his opponent down and uses his jiu-jitsu to control the fight. However, Morales has impeccable takedown defense and is likely the better wrestler. He is also the more physically imposing athlete. Look for Morales to successfully stuff Burns’ takedown attempts and eventually get the TKO win.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
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Julian Erosa uses a first-round submission to take a win over Ricardo Ramos
Julian Erosa gets Ricardo Ramos with a guillotine choke in the first round to take home a win by submission.
Middleweight: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
Ruziboev to win (-320), under 2.5 rounds. Ruziboev is getting the perfect matchup against Stoltzfus to start a new winning streak in the Octagon. While Stoltzfus is coming off a knockout win of his own, he is prone to getting tagged early and often, and against Ruziboev, that is a recipe for getting knocked out. With Ruziboev currently sitting as a near -300 favorite, put him in your parlay. If you’d rather take him as a separate play, take him to win and under 2.5 rounds to get better odds.
Featherweight: Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
Fight does not go the distance. This has every opportunity to be fight of the night. These two fighters always bring the action. Erosa has a kill-or-be-killed mentality with an 84% finish rate when he wins. In losses, his contests have a 64% finish rate. For Costa, four of his six UFC appearances have ended by finish. This fight will go one of two ways: Either Costa succumbs to the pressure and volume of Erosa, or Costa catches Erosa in a submission following a mistake. Either way, this fight doesn’t make it to the final bell.
Strawweight: Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro
Pennington to win by decision. Pinheiro is on a three-fight losing streak, and it’s hard to imagine she doesn’t suffer a fourth loss here. As the fight goes on, if it doesn’t go in Pinheiro’s favor, she tends to fade. Pennington has an endless gas tank and is the better fighter anywhere the fight goes. This matchup screams Pennington winning by decision.
