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Andre Snellings, ESPN
Almost exactly a year ago today, I wrote a somewhat controversial article suggesting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might already be good enough to contend for the MVP award. I backed it up with all types of historic analysis of scoring guards, and really worked to make the case that the indicators suggested the then-unheralded SGA was MVP material even if I thought it might be a season or two before he could win.
What a difference a year makes.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished second in last season’s MVP race, edged out only by another brilliant campaign from Nikola Jokic that earned him his third MVP in four seasons. At this moment, the MVP race is expected to be essentially a dead-heat between Jokic and SGA again. Per ESPN BET, Jokic is the favorite to win at +230, but SGA is right behind him at +275.
Should these be the only two viable candidates for this season’s MVP award? And can SGA break through to win his first?
Can SGA — or anyone — catch the Joker?
Jokic is playing at video game levels right now. He’s leading the NBA in both rebounds per game (13.7 RPG) and assists per game (11.7 APG), and he’s fourth in the league in scoring at 29.7 PPG. He’s averaging a 30/14/12 triple-double at the moment and is in sight of becoming the first NBA player to ever achieve the triple-crown.
Only Wilt Chamberlain, in 1968, has ever led the league in total points, assists and rebounds and no one has ever led all three on a per-game basis. If Jokic does that and the Nuggets finish even above .500, I believe he’d win his fourth MVP just on shear novelty of impact.
It’s hard to even imagine Jokic maintaining this pace for the whole season, though, and if he slows even slightly it leaves the door open for Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA’s scoring is down slightly from the past two seasons at 27.8 PPG, but he’s still shooting 50% from the field and a rounded 90% from the line, and is on career-best pace in both assists (6.5 APG) and rebounds (5.5 RPG).
Statistically, SGA just can’t compare with a Jokic that’s averaging a 30-point triple-double. Jokic is also off to an absurd pace in the impact stats, with an on-court +/- of +12.3 points per 100 possessions on a Nuggets team that only has a +2.9 point net differential on the season. The Nuggets have been a whopping 37.4 points better per 100 possessions with Jokic on the court than off so far this season, and the Nuggets are only a game behind the Thunder in the loss column to boot.
If the season ended today, Jokic would have thoroughly earned this MVP, but there are still five months left in the marathon season for SGA to catch up.
He’ll have an opportunity to make up some ground over the next couple of months due to the unfortunate injury to Chet Holmgren, who started the year playing at an All-Star level and was clearly helping SGA lead the Thunder to the top. With Holmgren out, SGA will need to carry a larger role both statistically and impact-wise for the Thunder to remain in contention. If he can do that, both his numbers and his narrative would be improved in the MVP debate.
Which other players have a shot at MVP?
At this point in the season, there are 10 players I’d consider in the MVP discussion. Behind Jokic and SGA, Jayson Tatum (+550), Luka Doncic (+750) and Anthony Edwards (+1000) have the shortest odds. Anthony Davis (+1800), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+3300), Donovan Mitchell (+5000), Jalen Brunson (+5000) and Stephen Curry (+5000) comprise the last of those I would consider true contenders.
Two of those last three are perhaps the most interesting to me at this stage of the season, because Mitchell and Curry are the unquestioned leaders of the two teams sitting atop the Eastern and Western conferences.
Mitchell’s Cavaliers are the last unbeaten team in the NBA, while Curry’s Warriors are tied with the SGA’s Thunder and the Suns for the best record out West. Neither team was expected to seriously contend for a top seed this season, so if either/both are able to stay in that mix it could vault their team leaders heavily into the MVP debate. They would certainly have a much better chance to win than the long-shot 50-to-1 of their current odds.
Tatum had a similar best player on best team argument last season, but Jaylen Brown is such a strong lieutenant and the Celtics such heavy favorites this season that it would hurt Tatum’s candidacy unless the Celtics make a now-unlikely 70-win push like the 2015-16 Warriors or 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. Those runs led to MVPs for Curry and Michael Jordan, but the Celtics have already lost three of their first 12 games and are three games behind Mitchell’s Cavaliers.
With Tatum unable to match Jokic’s statistical brilliance and lacking the underdog narrative, it’s hard to see him winning the MVP without a 70-win season. And Tatum to win also doesn’t have enough juice to make it a worthwhile bet at this point.
Also, with 2023 MVP Joel Embiid dealing with an injury and publicly stating he’s unlikely to play in the 65 games to compete for postseason awards, Doncic and Antetokounmpo are the players on the board that have traditionally come closest to Jokic’s statistical dominance. But at present, both the Mavericks and the Bucks are below .500, and they would need to pair their statistical dominance with likely more team success than the Nuggets in order to realistically contend with Jokic for MVP.
Edwards and Brunson are both in the Mitchell/Curry vein of MVP contention. Neither are likely to approach Jokic’s statistical dominance, so both would rely on elite and unexpected team success in order to battle for MVP. The Timberwolves and Knicks are both intriguing contenders in their conferences, but both are around .500 and currently several games behind the conference leaders.
The final name in contention is also very interesting, with Davis building an early-season MVP case that combines the strengths of the other non-Jokic contenders. The Lakers were not expected to contend this season, and traditionally it has been considered LeBron James‘ team. If the Lakers were to stay near the top of the league with Davis as the clear-cut team leader it could vault him into the MVP discussion. Davis is ahead of Jokic’s scoring pace at 31.2 PPG, is averaging a double-double, and is on the short list of best defensive players in the league as well.
A Davis candidacy centered on averaging a 30-10 double-double with Defensive Player of the Year caliber defense on the league’s glamour franchise, in a year where no one expected much… that’s a narrative that could heat up if it’s still viable in the spring.
But, durability has always been a question for Davis, and he’s currently missing time while dealing with foot and eye injuries. He would need to be almost as healthy as he was when he played 76 games last season to make a real run at Jokic for the MVP.
Bottom line
At present, Jokic has the best MVP case from both a statistical and an impact perspective and still may be value even at +230.
Gilgeous-Alexander would need to successfully carry a larger load while keeping the Thunder in contention while Holmgren is out to get back into the race.
Davis has some value at +1800, but durability concerns and the Lakers’ long-term success outlook keeps him a question mark.
Finally, Mitchell and Curry are the most intriguing longshots at 50-1 as leaders of unexpected contenders.
I’d consider Jokic, Davis, Mitchell and Curry to all have futures value in the MVP race at their current odds.
