The second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs has featured overtime thrillers and fourth-quarter comebacks.
None of the higher-seeded teams in the conference semifinals was able to capture a win in Game 1. Since then, the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves have bounced back.
But the pressure is on, and with injuries to stars such as Stephen Curry and Karl-Anthony Towns there’s no telling which direction these series will take going forward.
After a Round 2 start full of surprises and back-and-forth series, our NBA insiders break down the biggest takeaways, players under pressure and what to watch as teams try to break through to the conference finals.
Who is under the most pressure for Monday’s vital Game 4?
I know what you’re supposed to say. It’s Jayson Tatum and his lightning-rod game of long jumpers and the occasional occurrences of avoiding contact. Or Jaylen Brown, whose shooting in the series has been only marginally better than Tatum’s poor percentages. (Brown is a woeful 5-of-23 on 3-pointers.) But the reality is the Celtics, for all their outside bricklaying, still have five guys averaging in double figures and an established track record as a wrecking ball.
The Knicks really could use a signature game from All-Star guard Jalen Brunson on Monday night. His approval rating in New York is sky-high, and rightly so, because his clutch performances are legendary. But take a step back, and the uncomfortable truth is that Brunson is getting smothered by the Celtics’ rotation of defenders, especially Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. Brunson is shooting just 38% in the series. And Boston is keeping him off the line; Brunson has just 18 trips in the three games, which is 33% less than he averaged against the Detroit Pistons in the first round. The Knicks are averaging just 95 points in regulation and shooting a lowly 42% in the series. Plus, Karl-Anthony Towns is now dealing with a left hand injury, and the Celtics are more determined than ever to intentionally foul Mitchell Robinson, who is a ruinous 7-of-23 at the foul line, to steal Knicks possessions. — Brian Windhorst
This series will go to Game 7 if ____
Nikola Jokic rediscovers his shooting touch in one of the next two games. The three-time MVP is in an unprecedented funk, shooting under 40% from the floor in three consecutive games with at least 15 attempts for the first time in his career (regular season or playoffs), according to ESPN Research. Jokic, one of the most efficient superstars in NBA history, shot 33.3% during that three-game stretch, and he has more turnovers than assists in the series. Oklahoma City’s top-ranked defense deserves a lot of credit for making Jokic’s job difficult, and it will continue to apply the pressure as this series rolls on. — Tim MacMahon
What is the Wolves’ biggest weakness, and how do the Warriors exploit that without Stephen Curry?
As one of four teams in the league to rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense during the regular season, the Timberwolves don’t have many major vulnerabilities. And Minnesota’s 23-6 record since the calendar turned to March only reinforces that. However, the Wolves haven’t always protected the basketball the way a team that should be totally locked into the value of every possession would be expected to. Even though Minnesota is up 2-1 on Golden State, the Wolves have committed more turnovers than the Warriors in two out of the three games (including Game 3, in which they committed 21 to the Warriors’ 15). Despite winning the turnover battle, Golden State scored only 13 points off the Wolves’ miscues in Game 3, while the Wolves scored 16 points off the Warriors’. If the Warriors can continue to use Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, Brandin Podziemski, Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga to harass the Wolves’ ball handlers and get a little more organized in their transition game when they do force a Minnesota blunder, Golden State might be able to steal a win to extend the series and give Curry a chance to heal his left hamstring for a Game 6 return. — Dave McMenamin
The Cavs can bounce back in this series if they ____
Rediscover their historically great offense from the regular season. Cleveland had the No. 1 offensive rating in the NBA. But outside of Donovan Mitchell, it has been a struggle offensively all series, culminating in Game 4’s blowout loss that put the Cavs on the brink of elimination. In the first half of Sunday night’s contest, the Cavs scored 39 points while generating three assists and committing 14 turnovers. To make matters worse, Mitchell, who is averaging the most points in a playoff series by a Cavs player since LeBron James, did not play in the second half because of an ankle injury. — Jamal Collier
Bonus!
What has been the biggest surprise of the second round so far?
For the first time in NBA history, three teams have posted a point differential of plus-9 or better per game. Then those same squads — the Thunder, Cavaliers and Celtics — cruised in the first round, going a combined 12-1 against overmatched play-in teams. They all seemed on a collision course for the conference finals and/or NBA Finals.
So, even while acknowledging the role that injuries and shooting luck have played, it’s an immense surprise that this trio is collectively struggling in the second round. The big three from the regular season are a combined 4-7 against Denver, Indiana and New York in these playoffs. Those same big three might all still advance, as expected. But the unexpected parity has made for more entertaining games and a more competitive round overall. — Zach Kram
My NBA Finals picks are:
Even though both trailed 2-1 as of Sunday morning, I’m sticking with the Celtics and the Thunder. Boston’s Game 3 performance was a reminder of its matchup advantages against the Knicks when it makes 3s. The Celtics would surely be favored if they make the Eastern Conference finals. Out West, Minnesota is the safest bet on the board to reach the conference finals and also has matched up well with Oklahoma City this season. Still, the Thunder are back in a position of having home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, making them the favorites. — Kevin Pelton
